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How to Bet Against the “Public”

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One of the best strategies you can employ in sports betting is betting against the public or fading the public. Not only can you win with more favourable odds, but you can also win big bucks when used correctly and more efficiently. Let’s admit it, in sports betting, there are a lot of casual bettors and newbies with little to no knowledge at all in betting and just want to have some fun.

While it’s not bad at all to bet just for fun, people who do this can be in a very disadvantageous position, especially for veteran bettors. With knowledge, experience, and some tips from other veteran bettors on your side, you can use this information to bet on the most favourable line available and win more bucks.

What does betting against the public mean?

Basically, betting against the public means betting against what the general public thinks will happen in the game. In general, people will vote for the most probable scenario backed by many bettors. When that happens, many bets will begin to pour one-sidedly, meaning that oddsmakers will make the opposing bet more viable. This means that the opposing bet will have more favourable odds and bigger winnings.

While, in hindsight, this isn’t a very good tactic at all, it’s not winning that matters the most. What matters is that in the off chance that your bet wins, you’ll win a whole lot more money in the end. Just remember that the general public isn’t right all the time.

How do you profit from it?

People tend to bet on the favourites and “overs” because who wouldn’t want to bet on the winning side? Not only that, the media nowadays tends to overhype the favourites by featuring them a lot, which ultimately encourages people to bet on them.

Just look at NFL betting. Over the past eight seasons, games with 75% of bettors betting to one side only have a loss rate of over 50%. This number means that fading the public has been more profitable because of the 50%  win rate. This is even fortified because large underdogs tend to cover the spread 50% of the time when 75% of the people are betting on the favourites with 7+ points to cover.

Yes, no betting trend lasts since the market will adjust to it eventually, but betting against the public has been around for a long time now because of its profitability. This is most probably because it will always be a man’s nature to bet on a game’s winning side.

You can use the public opinion to your advantage. Once a lot of bets come pouring in one-sidedly, the bookies will make the opposing team be more favourable by adjusting their odds by putting another point for the favourite to cover. You can then take advantage of this and bet on the opposing line. While it’s unlikely that you’ll win against the favourite, you can win a lot of money when you do actually win.

Factors that Influence the Opinion of the Public

So, now that we convinced you that fading the public is a viable strategy, let’s discuss what factors affect the public’s favourites. It’s also important to note that you can also use these factors to determine the public’s favourite since determining the public’s consensus is not easily distinguishable sometimes.

Like mentioned before, one of the strongest factors that can influence the public’s opinion is the media. The media tends to overhype the favourite by featuring them a lot in sports articles and updating the team.

Higher profile teams are also something that can lure a lot of people to vote for them. This is especially true for casual fans, who know only surface-level knowledge about the sport. Not only that, if the team has a star player in them, it’s more likely that a lot of people will bet on them.

Another factor that can influence the public is home-court advantage. This is especially true in team sports like hockey, basketball, and football. While it’s a huge advantage with the home team, you should research how the game will likely turn by researching both of the team’s performance.

And lastly, psychology has a lot to say on bettor trends and behaviour. Psychologically speaking, people tend to bet on a team that can put out many scores or on the winning team. That said, the public tends to dislike betting on low scoring games or tied games. As a gambler who likes to bet against the public, this is useful information.

If you find it hard to bet against the public on a game where most of the bettors are betting on a certain team but are vague on how much the team will win by, you can still fade them if you want to.

Takeaway

Fading the public is one of the easiest strategies you can employ when betting. However, there is a lot more to it than just going against public perception. You still have to do your research on both teams and see if the other teams have a good chance of winning the game. After all, even if the payout is bigger with the other team, it can still be frustrating if they don’t have a chance to win.

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