Only 35% of World Cup Bettors Are Willing to Bet Against Their Own Country, According to Gambling Nerd

The FIFA World Cup is one of the few sporting events that transcends sports itself. Every four years, entire countries rally behind their national teams, creating a level of emotional investment rarely seen elsewhere in the sporting world. Flags appear in windows, social media fills with predictions, and millions of fans suddenly become amateur football analysts.

Yet despite this strong sense of national pride, a surprising number of sports bettors are willing to bet on the opposing side.

The question is simple: how many people actually bet against their own national team during the World Cup?

According to GamblingNerd.com, a review hub for the best online gambling sites, the answer may be more common than many fans would expect.

The Emotional Conflict of Betting Against Your Country

For many supporters, wagering against their national team feels almost unthinkable. Sports fandom is often rooted in loyalty, identity, and emotional attachment. Betting against a team that represents your country can feel disloyal, even if the wager makes financial sense.

However, sports betting introduces a different way of thinking. Experienced bettors are often trained to separate emotion from analysis. They focus on probabilities, value, injuries, matchups, and odds rather than national pride.

This creates an interesting divide between casual fans and serious bettors. While one group may bet with their heart, the other often bets with their head.

What The Surveys Show

Several betting industry surveys conducted around recent World Cups have suggested that a significant percentage of bettors are willing to wager against their own country under the right circumstances.

Research published by betting operators in Europe before the 2022 FIFA World Cup found that between 20% and 35% of regular sports bettors said they would consider betting against their national team if they believed the odds offered value.

The numbers varied considerably by country. Nations with strong football traditions such as England, Germany, and Brazil often showed lower willingness to bet against the home side, while bettors from countries viewed as underdogs were more likely to make objective betting decisions.

The common theme was that experienced bettors were substantially more willing to separate fandom from wagering.

Professional Bettors Think Differently

Professional sports bettors often approach international tournaments differently than casual fans.

Many view the World Cup as a market rather than an emotional event. Their primary objective is identifying value opportunities, regardless of which team is involved.

If the betting market overestimates a popular national team because of public sentiment, professionals may actually see betting against that team as an opportunity.

This phenomenon is particularly common when heavily supported nations attract large amounts of recreational betting action. Public enthusiasm can sometimes influence betting markets and create value on the opposite side.

For professional bettors, the nationality of the team is often irrelevant compared to the probability of the outcome.

England’s World Cup Example

England provides one of the most interesting examples of this dynamic.

Before nearly every major tournament, public optimism tends to drive substantial betting interest toward England. Sportsbooks have historically reported significant betting volume on England to win the World Cup, regardless of whether the odds accurately reflect the team’s true chances.

Some professional bettors have openly discussed fading England futures markets because they believe patriotic betting inflates prices.

This does not necessarily mean England is overrated as a team. Rather, it demonstrates how emotional betting can sometimes affect market pricing.

The Rise of “Hedging Happiness”

Behavioral economists have identified another reason why some fans bet against their own team: emotional hedging.

The concept is simple. By placing a wager on the opposing team, fans create a situation where they receive some form of compensation if their national team loses.

If their country wins, they celebrate the victory. If their country loses, the betting ticket softens the disappointment.

Researchers studying sports fandom have described this behavior as a way of reducing emotional risk during highly stressful sporting events.

While not every fan embraces this approach, it has become increasingly common as sports betting becomes more mainstream.

Does Betting Against Your Team Actually Work?

From a purely financial perspective, betting against a national team is no different from any other wager.

Success depends on whether the odds accurately reflect the probability of the outcome.

However, betting against a favorite national team can sometimes help remove emotional bias from decision-making. Many bettors struggle to evaluate their own country’s chances objectively because personal attachment influences perception.

Some betting analysts argue that fans are often more likely to overestimate the strengths of teams they support, which can create poor betting decisions.

In those situations, stepping back emotionally may lead to more rational wagering choices.

National Pride Still Wins Most Of The Time

Despite the growing popularity of sports betting, most fans continue supporting their national teams with both their emotions and their wallets.

Sportsbooks regularly report surges in betting activity on home nations during major international tournaments. World Cup betting markets often see disproportionate action on popular teams regardless of statistical expectations.

This reflects a reality that extends beyond sports betting: for many supporters, cheering for their country is about identity rather than investment.

The emotional payoff of seeing a national team succeed often outweighs any financial considerations.

The Final Whistle

The World Cup creates a unique intersection between fandom and finance. While many bettors remain fiercely loyal to their national teams, a growing percentage are willing to put emotion aside and follow the numbers.

Surveys suggest that as many as one-third of experienced sports bettors would consider wagering against their own country if the odds presented sufficient value. For professionals, it is simply another betting market. For casual fans, however, national pride often remains the deciding factor.

The result is one of the most fascinating psychological conflicts in sports betting—a situation where loyalty and logic sometimes find themselves on opposite sides of the wager.

About Gambling Nerd

GamblingNerd.com is an independent gambling media website, publishing experience-based reviews, guides, and analysis of online casinos, sportsbooks, and poker sites for gamblers of all experience levels worldwide. Originally launched as gamblingsites.org in 2007 and rebranded as GamblingNerd.com in 2025, the site covers the United States, Canada, Australia, and selected European jurisdictions. Its editorial team is based across the United States. Its Nerd Nook Hub section covers the mathematics of casino games, betting systems, and sports betting strategy.