BETTING TIP: Bayern Munich v Inter Milan – Back Jose all the way

By on May 21, 2010

Champions League

By Josh Poole.

The 2010 Champions League Final takes place Saturday night in Madrid with Louis Van Gaal’s Bayern taking on Jose Mourinho’s Inter. Both sides have done exceptionally well to get this far; Bayern beating Fiorentina, Man United and Lyon whilst Inter progressed past Chelsea, CSKA Moscow and Barcelona. A tight tactical affair is expected in which Van Gall’s attacking mentality will be tested against the organised and resolute defensive capabilities of a classic Mourinho formation. So who should come out on top?

The statistics would suggest the games decisive battle will be between Inter’s solid defence which has leaked only 9 goals the entire campaign and Bayern’s attacking force which has scored an impressive 21 goals. Bayern average a possession of 58% compared to Inter’s 45% suggesting Inter will allow Bayern to have the majority of the possession and look to defend and attack as a balanced outfit. Two teams with differing mentalities but equally effective results have left the market with great potential for value. BetFred.com offers the best value with odds of 21/10 for a Bayern victory, 9/4 for the draw and 13/10 for an Inter win.

The bookies rank Inter as favourites and I would have to agree with them for the following reasons;

1. Inter’s formidable defence – The back-line of Maicon, Lucio, Samuel and Zanetti has been the best in Europe this season. They leaked only one goal home and away against record goal scorers Chelsea, none against CSKA and managed to hold out, with 10 men, to only lose 1 0 against the mighty attacking force of Barcelona. Lucio and Samuel in particular have been magnificent outclassing the likes of Drogba with ease.  In Goalkeeper Caesar they have possibly the best shot-stopper in the World at present and with the physical presence of Cambiasso, who has been excellent in protecting his defence, they seem unlikely to leak any avoidable goals.

2. Ribbery Out – Robben tamed – Key man Ribbery will miss the final through suspension leaving a huge creative burden on the shoulders of the Flying Dutchman Robben. He has been sensational in the Champions League run-in for Bayern knocking out Fiorentina and Man United with terrific goals. However, I see the experienced Zanetti employed to counter his effect in this game. Lionel Messi was hunted by Zanetti during the semis to great effect and I expect the same treatment for Robben; he will be bullied into submission especially as he tends to cut in onto his favoured left-foot where Zanetti will feel comfortable defending with his favoured right.

3. The Mourinho Factor – Mourinho has built a solid workman-like team of stars at Inter. His defence as discussed is destructive but his attacking options also better Bayern’s; Milito is a deadly and reliable source of goals, Eto’o has the experience and presence of previous success in the Champions League and I am confident Sneijder will keep the team ticking with his creative prowess. We can expect Mourinho to have installed into his team a solid game-plan outlining the strengths and weaknesses of Bayern and be confident in his tactics as in the Chelsea and Barcelona ties where he outshone his rivals. Furthermore, there is no more successful coach in the art of transforming a game through tactical changes than Mourinho should things not be going entirely to plan.

Conclusion – a more balanced, well equipped and effective Inter to win this one. Value lies in the basic win for Inter.

Tip of the Day – Inter to win 13/10 (BetFred)

Security Tip – To Lift The Cup Inter 4/7 (BetFred)

Longshot – Inter to Win to Nil 9/4 (BetFred)

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