2024/25 UEFA Champions League rankings: Clubs that risk early exit with three games to play-offs

The UEFA Champions League keeps getting more intense, as the new format has heightened the competition at the tournament. Each team fights to make it to the knockout stages, but the sad truth remains that only a few clubs will reach this stage and one Victor will emerge as the new King of European football.

Instead of the traditional eight groups of four teams, that grant passage to the top two clubs from each group into the last 16 – a new ‘Swiss-style’ 36-league format was introduced this season, with clubs still playing teams from other associations through several pot selections. The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the last 16, while the teams finishing in ninth to twenty-fourth place will compete in a two-legged play-off against each other (Home and away games) for a chance to be paired with the top eight in the Round of 16. The two-legged final rounds continue until the final single match, which will be held at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany this year.

Unlike the previous editions, the bottom twelve teams (from 25th to 36th) will be eliminated without access to the UEFA Europa League (which has also adopted this format alongside the UEFA Conference League).

To secure a top-24 finish and guarantee a spot in the playoffs, teams are expected to earn at least 10 points from the eight games, which is equivalent to three wins and a draw or similar combinations. Achieving nine points, such as winning three of eight matches, could also be enough, with 69% of simulations carried out by experts showing this as sufficient for 24th place. However, collecting only eight points, through two wins and two draws or similar results, comes with a significant risk of elimination, as this tally is sufficient in just 16% of simulations. Participating clubs are aiming for at least three wins from eight games to maximize their chances of advancing to the knockout stages. Already, 16 teams have achieved this, making the competition more intense.

Liverpool sits at the top of the League with a perfect record in five games. Another win for Arne Slot’s side will inevitably grant them qualification into the Round of 16. Italian Champions Inter followed, before Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, and Atlanta, all gunning for qualification for the next round on Gameweek 6.

While most teams have enjoyed lasting success in the competition this season, most European giants have struggled to find their footing. Defending champions Real Madrid for example, sit at the last playoff spot having lost three of their previous five games – a rare feat for a club that has enjoyed the most success in the competition. Other European giants like Manchester City are crumbling down the League table, while Paris Saint-Germain sits outside the playoff rounds, highlighting the intensity of the tournament this season. This article highlights the clubs likely to fall into the twelve teams to be eliminated by the end of Gameweek 8 and their chances of turning things around based on their previous performances in the tournament.

1. Slovan Bratislava

Slovan Bratislava’s fairytale qualifying campaign, which saw them navigate four qualifying rounds to reach the Champions League main event has turned into a nightmare. So far, the Slovakian club has lost all their five games, conceding a staggering 18 goals. The club showed more spirit in their last outing against AC Milan but still fell 3-2 to the Rossaneri at home. This was largely due to a poor defensive network to support the efforts of their attacking duo.

They face early elimination from the tournament if they fail to win their next game. With matches against Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich still to come, and even struggling Stuttgart posing a threat at home, they’ll likely finish the league phase without a single point.

2. Young Boys

Young Boys are increasingly declining in form in the European competition this season. Last outing’s 6-2 defeat to Atlanta on home turf extinguished any hopes of a quick resurgence for the Swiss side. The closest they came to getting a point was against Inter Milan, but Marcus Thuram’s last-minute goal was enough to keep the team in search of their first point this season. They currently sit at the bottom of the League table.

While nine points from their remaining three games could secure them a playoff spot, it seems highly unlikely. Their upcoming opponents Stuttgart, Celtic, and Red Star Belgrade may not be the toughest, but given their current situations, the Swiss would have to pull a miracle to find their way into the playoffs. Failure to win their next game could mean automatic elimination.

3. Red Bull Salzburg

Salzburg’s campaign in the Champions League came crumbling down with three straight losses and no goals scored. A surprising win over Feyenoord in October briefly reassured the German side of an uptrend,  but a painful 5-0 loss to fellow Bundesliga side – Bayer Leverkusen ended their momentum. While still not mathematically eliminated, Salzburg would need seven points from games against PSG, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid to qualify, which is a near-impossible task given the situations of these clubs.

4. RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig entered this year’s competition aiming to replicate last season’s run to the last 16 but now find themselves in a tight spot after five straight defeats. Marco Rose’s side was unlucky to be selected with a pack of Europe’s best teams to navigate. They narrowly fell to Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, and Inter Milan, and had unforgivable losses with defeats to 10-man Juventus and Celtic. They might salvage some points in their remaining games against Aston Villa, Sporting CP, and Sturm Graz, but their knockout hopes seem very unlikely.

5. Bologna

Bologna’s struggles in the Champions League were predictable following the departure of key figures like coach Thiago Motta, striker Joshua Zirkzee, and defender Riccardo Calafiori after their historic qualification to the tournament. They’ve managed just one point from five games and scored their first goal recently in a 2-1 home loss to Monaco. With their lack of firepower, expecting them to win their remaining games against Benfica, Dortmund, and Sporting CP is unrealistic.

6. Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz finally gave their fans something to cheer about with a surprising 1-0 win over Girona, snapping a streak of four defeats with just one goal scored. However, their remaining fixtures, away to Lille and Atalanta, are daunting. Their best chance for a positive finish may come in their final game against a struggling RB Leipzig.

7. Girona

Girona’s only set of points came from their 1-0 victory over Sturm Graz. They’ve lost four games and remain in a spot to fight for the playoff spots. But facing Liverpool, AC Milan, and Arsenal in their final fixtures cuts short their chances of progressing.

8. Sparta Prague

After earning four points from their first two games, Sparta Prague’s strong start to the tournament has been derailed by three consecutive defeats. Their most recent loss to Atletico Madrid (6-0) leaves their hopes of progression hanging by a thread. At 28th in the table, unless they can pull off an upset against Feyenoord on Gameweek six, their final games against Inter and Bayer Leverkusen make progression for the Czech club nearly impossible.

9. Red Star Belgrade

Red Star Belgrade stunned Stuttgart on Gameweek 5 with a dominant 5-0 victory in front of 40,000 fans. After conceding five goals in each of their previous two matches, the Serbian side turned the tables to claim their first points in the tournament. While a late push for a playoff spot still seems unlikely, there is hope that the Serbian side can make it. They face AC Milan next, which will be a tight encounter. If they can beat PSV at home and secure a win over Young Boys in their final match in Bern, they will qualify for the Play-offs.

10. Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk was close to a crucial win over PSV in Gameweek 5, only to collapse in the final minutes in Eindhoven. The Ukrainian champions are stuck with four points and will qualify only if they earn at least six points from the final three games against Bayern Munich, Brest, and Borussia Dortmund.

11. Stuttgart

Stuttgart’s return to the Champions League after a decade is faced with multiple challenges and under-performance. Injuries and the loss of key players, such as Serhou Guirassy, have taken their toll in their 2024/25 League campaigns. The German side will look to recover quickly from the 5-1 defeat at the hands of Red Star Belgrade if they seek to get a playoff spot. Wins over Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava can put them in such a position.

12. Club Brugge

While the Belgian side currently sits in 22nd in the UCL Table, above Real Madrid, PSG, and Dynamo Kyiv, their upcoming fixtures against Sporting CP, Juventus, and Manchester City present a tough challenge and could derail their push for a playoff spot.

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