Champions League 2024/25 draw: group stage preview, ‘Swiss model’ format and favourites to win

The UEFA Champions League is returning, with the group stage draw scheduled at Grimaldi Forum in Monaco on Thursday, August 29.

The 2024-25 season will shift away from its traditional structure, embracing a 36-team single-group format. While this change extends the length of the group stages, it also opens the door for more teams to compete, ensuring an increase in exciting matchups.

This marks the 70th season of Europe’s premier club competition, the 33rd since it was rebranded as the UEFA Champions League, and the first season under this new format. The tournament began on July 9, 2024, and will culminate with the final in Munich, Germany, on Saturday, May 31, 2025.

Last season preview

In the previous campaign, Real Madrid emerged champions for a record 15th time, their sixth title in eleven years.

Los Blancos also set the record for the most perfect group-stage campaigns, winning all their group-stage matches three times.

Carlo Ancelotti extended his record to five Champions League titles (2003 and 2007 with AC Milan; 2014, 2022, and 2024 with Madrid). He also equalled the record held by Bob Paisley (Liverpool) and Zinedine Zidane ( Madrid) for the most titles won with a single team, having secured three of these victories with Madrid.

The competition also saw a young determined Borussia Dortmund side overcome the odds to upset Atletico Madrid in the quarter-finals and Paris Saint-Germain in the semi-finals to reach the final of the competition where they eventually lost to Madrid.

The Premier League clubs had a bit of a mixed campaign, with Manchester United and Newcastle United crashing out of the group stages while Arsenal and Manchester City both crashed out of the quarter-finals to Munich and Madrid respectively.

New Champions League ‘Swiss Model’ format

As previously mentioned, the competition is expanding to 36 teams, but the traditional format of eight groups of four is being replaced by a single league featuring all 36 teams. This doesn’t mean that every team will face off against each other. Instead, the “Swiss Model,” typically used in chess tournaments, will be implemented. Under this system, each club will compete in eight matches — four at home and four away.

The matchups will be decided at the start of the season, with teams divided into four pots of nine. Pot 1 will include the reigning Champions League winner and the eight teams with the highest coefficients. The remaining pots, Pots 2 to 4, will also be organized based on team coefficients.

In the new format, each team will be drawn to play against two teams from each pot, with one match at home and the other away. As a result, every team in Pot 1, which includes the biggest clubs in Europe, will face two different teams from the same pot.

Following this initial phase, the top eight teams in the league will automatically qualify for the last 16. Teams ranked from ninth to 24th will enter a play-off round to compete for the remaining spots, while teams finishing 25th or lower will be eliminated from all European competitions for that season.

The 36 teams will be divided into four pots based on their club coefficients at the season’s start. Pot 1 will include the defending champions, Madrid, along with other top clubs with high UEFA coefficients.

Typically, clubs from the same country are not drawn against each other; however, if a country has four or more teams in the competition, there’s a chance they could face each other in one match.

As a result of these changes, the number of matches in the UEFA Champions League will increase significantly. While this season features 125 games, next season will see a total of 189 games, making it the most extensive European competition to date.

Format for the 2024-25 knockout phase

The results of each match will determine the overall standings in the new league format, maintaining the standard three points for a win and one point for a draw.

The top eight teams in the league will automatically advance to the round of 16, while the clubs finishing between 9th and 24th will enter a two-legged knockout play-off to secure their spots in the last 16. Teams that end up in 25th place or lower will be eliminated from the competition without any access to the UEFA Europa League.

With all teams ranked in a single league, the new format ensures there will be something at stake until the final night of the league phase.

In the knockout play-offs, the teams finishing between 9th and 16th will be seeded and will face teams placed 17th to 24th, with the higher-ranked teams typically hosting the return leg at home. The eight winners of these play-offs will move on to the round of 16, where they will compete against one of the top eight finishers, who will be seeded in this round.

To enhance the connection between the league and knockout phases and to increase competitive incentives during the league stage, the matchups in the knockout phase will partly depend on the league phase rankings, with a draw that outlines the path for teams to reach the final.

Starting from the round of 16, the competition will maintain its traditional knockout format, culminating in a final hosted at a neutral venue chosen by UEFA.

All matches leading up to the final will remain scheduled for midweek to respect the importance of domestic leagues across Europe, while the final itself will continue to take place on a Saturday.

2024-25 Champions League participating teams

The qualifying rounds are currently underway, with several clubs already confirmed. Brest from Ligue 1 and Girona from La Liga will debut in European competition. Germany and Italy have secured an additional spot in the tournament due to their strong performances in last season’s UEFA competitions.

• Pot 1: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Liverpool, Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, Barcelona
• Pot 2: Bayer Leverkusen, Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Juventus, Benfica, Arsenal, Club Brugge, Shakhtar Donetsk, Milan
• Pot 3: Feyenoord, Sporting CP, PSV Eindhoven, Celtic
• Pot 4: Monaco, Aston Villa, Bologna, Girona, VfB Stuttgart, Sturm Graz, Brest

The draw will take place on Thursday 29th August. Tickets for the group phase will go on sale once all the fixtures are confirmed, with fans able to purchase tickets through the individual clubs and on a ticket marketplace such as Seatsnet.com.

2024-25 Champions League favourites

Manchester City

City have consistently set high standards in recent years, though they’ve secured the Champions League title only once during this period, with Madrid claiming the trophy in the years surrounding City’s 2023 victory.

Phil Foden had a standout season in 2023/24, emerging as a key playmaker for City. Erling Haaland continues to be a reliable source of goals, ensuring that City remains a formidable offensive force.

Kevin De Bruyne’s form dipped upon his return from injury last season. If he can regain the level he showcased in the 2022/23 Champions League, City will be a strong contender this campaign.

Real Madrid

Madrid have secured the Champions League title in two of the last three seasons, underlining their enduring affinity for the trophy. With a record 15 titles to their name, they have a remarkable pedigree in the competition.

Los Blancos had to defend resolutely against Pep Guardiola’s City in the quarter-finals and benefited from a miscued save by Bayern’s Manuel Neuer in the semi-finals. In the final, although Dortmund threatened early on, Madrid eventually won 2-0.

Looking ahead, the Spanish champions have strengthened their squad by signing Kylian Mbappe for the 2024/25 season. His addition could enhance Madrid’s attacking flair, potentially leading to a more dynamic and stylish campaign in the Champions League.

Inter Milan

Inter, working with a more modest budget compared to some rivals, have become formidable under Simone Inzaghi. The team excels both defensively and in attack, making them a strong contender for the Champions League title next season. The key to their success will be Lautaro Martinez, as a reliable attacker is crucial for clinching a European title.

Teams to look out for

Arsenal

Arsenal impressed during the 2023/24 season by remaining competitive in both the Premier League and Champions League. However, despite a strong start, Mikel Arteta’s team ultimately fell short in both tournaments.

After advancing from their Champions League group with ease, Arsenal struggled against Porto in the Round of 16 and were eliminated by Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. While they lost narrowly to Bayern, they seemed lacking in confidence against the formidable German side.

For a deeper run in this season’s competition, Arsenal will need to improve their performance in the knockout stages. On the bright side, the squad is young and, with experience, should be better prepared to contend in the later stages of the 2024/25 campaign.

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen had an outstanding 2023/24 season under Xabi Alonso, coming close to a treble with the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Europa League. Their only defeat was in the Europa League final against Atalanta. Domestically, they achieved a double, a rare feat often associated with Bayern Munich. Securing Xabi Alonso’s continued leadership might be considered the club’s greatest accomplishment.

The German champions are looking forward to competing against Europe’s top clubs and are determined to make a strong impression this season. They kicked off their Bundesliga campaign with a penalty shootout victory over Stuttgart in the German Super Cup and a win against Borussia Mönchengladbach on the opening day.