How to Spot an Underdog in Football: A Conversation with Johnslots’ Alex Hussain

Everyone has a different way of observing and analysing football, and that makes it pretty difficult to predict and bet on a particular result.

This is especially true when it comes to betting on underdogs.

Take the last Premier League season. At the beginning of the tournament, it would have seemed foolish to suggest Chelsea would finish in their lowest position since 1993/94, or that Bournemouth would have one of their best seasons with wins against Liverpool and Spurs.

In leagues like this, the competition between every team is so close that it becomes nearly impossible to distinguish who are the leaders and who are the underdogs.

But there is a way to do so. Last week, we chatted to Johnslots Alex Hussain, a distinguished online gambling journalist, who has learned to use his skills at the table to power his ability to spot underdogs in football. In this conservation, he told us how he predicts the big games and works to decipher which teams have it in them, and which will fall to the wayside.

‘Who Are The Players at The Table?’

Hi, Alex. Please start by telling us what you do.

Hi there! So I’m an online gambling journalist who has been working with Johnslots for a while now. Basically, I give up-to-date information to those who need it in the gambling community. I cover the latest developments in the industry, including emerging trends in sports betting, and concentrate that all into something concise and readable!

How does your passion for gambling incite your passion for football?

Well, sports betting is a lot like normal betting. If I’m sitting at a poker table – or a virtual poker table, it is 2024 after all! – I’m looking around and analysing every player across from me. What’s their skills, their qualities, their weaknesses? Do these make them a strong opponent, or a weak opponent?

More importantly, if they are a little weaker, do they have the qualities necessary to tag them as an underdog? The same goes for sport. Who are the players at the table? Which are the teams that are most likely to cause an upset? The tactics are very much the same.

Okay, so let’s cut to the chase. How do you analyse a football team?

Well, one of the first things you have to do is look at the odds. That may sound obvious, but the amount of people who bet with their heart and not with their head is high. To spot an underdog, it’s crucial to find the teams with the bigger odds, as these are the sides that people think will lose.

Next, do your research. Why do people think they will lose? What makes them a supposedly “bad” team? Then look at their upcoming fixtures. Are the “better” team fallible? What do the odds tell you about them?

So research is an important part of spotting an underdog?

Yes. But research into both teams. Don’t just gloss over the opponents because they’re Liverpool, or Man City, as the stats can help you in your predictions. Last season, for instance, Liverpool were beaten by Bournemouth in a shock upset. I called that game. And you know how I called it? I looked closely at Liverpool. Most people would have seen that Liverpool put nine goals past the Cherries in their last fixture, giving them their seventh straight league victory against them.

But if you looked at the stats, it was also true that Liverpool had the biggest percentage of conceding first – around 45% in total. I knew that, if Bournemouth could get that first goal into the net, then they had a real chance of creating an upset. After all, it was only a dramatic 97th minute goal that had stopped them winning against Arsenal the week before. They were at the bottom of the table. But they weren’t far off a big win. And with the conceding stat, I knew that the Liverpool game was one for the taking.

Interesting. So it’s a fine balance between researching both teams?

Yes, of course. If you don’t do that, then you also won’t know if the favourite is in bad form, or maybe has injuries to key players. Look at the players who have made the most substantial impact in their wings. Are they performing well now? Are they out injured? These could be key points that lead to an underdog taking the win.

It’s also important to analyse the lesser leagues to start off with. In plenty of cup games, big teams change their starting XIs and the smaller teams play at the top of their game. This can give you a more accurate avenue to spot underdogs.  I’m not saying there’s no luck involved, of course. There is. But it’s up to you to make your own luck and do all the research you can.

Alex Hussain, thank you very much.

Thank you!