Is this one of the most exciting La Liga titles races ever?

As the 2024-25 La Liga campaign approaches its final phase, the competition for La Liga is unfolding into one of the fiercest contests witnessed in recent years.

Barcelona, currently level on points (60) with second-placed Real Madrid with an extra fixture in their favour, are locked in a tightly contested pursuit of the title. Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, occupy third position with 56 points—having squandered a vital opportunity to tighten the margin following a 4-2 defeat to the Catalan giants.

Not since the 2013-14 season has the battle for the top position been this finely balanced after 23 rounds of fixtures when each of the three powerhouses were deadlocked at 57 points. On that occasion, Atlético emerged triumphant, finishing the campaign three points clear at the top.

It was during the 2003-04 season that a side outside the traditional trio—Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético Madrid—last captured the league title, as Valencia emerged victorious. Villarreal came closest to doing so in 2012-13, ending the season as second-placed finishers, while Athletic Bilbao’s most recent league triumph dates all the way back to the 1983-84 campaign. At this stage, it seems improbable that such an outcome will occur.

As the current season witnesses another intense three-horse race with Athletic Bilbao emerging as a potential disruptor, we analyse the three title challengers and why the 2024-25 LaLiga campaign is shaping up to become one of the most exciting LaLiga title races ever, plus some of the deciding final-day fixtures.

Real Madrid

With a record 36 La Liga trophies already in their cabinet, Madrid are aiming to secure yet another league triumph in the ongoing 2024-25 campaign.

Although the Los Blancos have claimed the domestic crown on five occasions over the last 13 years, they haven’t retained it in consecutive seasons throughout that stretch so those with Real Madrid tickets will be hoping to end that run this season. The previous instance of a successful title defence dates back to the 2007-08 season when they ended the year eight points ahead of Villarreal. In the season prior, their league success was determined by their head-to-head advantage over Barcelona.

A poor beginning to this term saw Los Blancos fall behind early, placing them in a position where they’ve had to recover lost ground. Despite sitting atop the standings at one point, Carlo Ancelotti’s squad is now back in pursuit. From their previous seven La Liga matches, they’ve secured just three victories, with defeats coming against Espanyol and Real Betis. Since that latter loss, only two wins have followed.

With the competition breathing down their necks, a single stumble could shift the momentum completely—potentially granting their arch-rivals, Barcelona, the chance to widen the gap at the summit of the standings.

During the previous season, Madrid clinched the title by scoring the highest number of goals and allowing the fewest—figures they aren’t currently on pace to replicate.

None of Spain’s last seven title-winning teams have failed to top at least one of those critical statistics. Yet, Madrid were the last to break that pattern back in 2016-17, when they ended with the second-most goals scored and the fourth-best defensive record.

On the bright side, Kylian Mbappé appears to be settling into Spanish football after a slow introduction. While he went goalless in his first trio of La Liga outings, the Frenchman has now tallied 20 goals alongside three assists, contributing to 23 goal involvements across 26 league appearances this season.

Barcelona

Although last season’s title defence didn’t go as planned for Barcelona, this year’s campaign has been nothing short of unpredictable. After beginning strongly—including a statement-making victory in El Clásico—a poor run during the winter months saw them slip to third.

However, that dip, which featured four matches without a win, was followed by an impressive resurgence. With seven back-to-back wins since then, they’ve surged back to the top of the table. The destiny of the title now rests with them.

Under Hansi Flick, the Catalan side launched into the season with immense momentum. In 2024—25, they won 11 of their initial 12 league outings, which handed them a commanding nine-point lead, although they had played one additional match compared to Madrid at that stage.

Their standout triumph among those victories occurred at the Santiago Bernabéu, where they dismantled Madrid 4-0 in El Clásico, putting an end to their rivals’ incredible 42-game unbeaten league streak and stopping them just short of matching Barcelona’s 2018 competition record.

During the 2023-24 campaign, Barcelona ended ten points adrift of Madrid. This season, they’ve turned to their younger talents in a bid to restore domestic dominance. Only Valencia have fielded a younger average starting lineup (24 years and 278 days) than Barcelona’s (24y 3(24 y323 days and, despite the experienced 36-year-old Robert Lewandowski continuing to lead the forward line.

With 75 goals scored already, the Blaugrana are the highest-scoring side in the league—a tally unmatched at this point in a season since Madrid’s 66 goals in 23 fixtures during the 2015-16 campaign.

Having recently overcome Atlético just before the international break, Barcelona still have one more clash against Madrid coming up on 11th May.

In contrast, the two Madrid clubs have already met twice this season, with both encounters ending in 1-1 draws. This scenario potentially tips the title race in the Blaugrana’s favour. Notably, Flick has outsmarted Madrid on both occasions this season—not just with the 4-0 league demolition but also with a dominant 5-2 win in the Supercopa de España.

Atlético Madrid

Emerging as part of Spain’s traditional heavyweights, Atlético often enter the title discussion early in the season, though their odds aren’t relatively as short as those of Barcelona or Madrid.

However, their chances remain significantly more potent than those of the remaining 17 clubs—understandably, as their two league triumphs in the past 11 years are the only ones in the last two decades not claimed by either of the El Clásico giants.

This season, Diego Simeone’s squad have firmly positioned themselves in the title conversation, though a recent dip in performance has seen them begin to slide. Of the four defeats they’ve registered this campaign, half have come in their last two matches—including a painful 4-2 home collapse against Barcelona after leading 2-0 as late as the 71st minute.

With 56 points on the board, Atlético trail both Madrid and Barcelona by a margin of four, yet this marks their highest tally at this stage since their title-winning run in 2020-21 when they had 55. This group stands out as the most seasoned and veteran-laden among the leading contenders.

Throughout Simeone’s era, Atlético have evolved into the most defensively reliable team in La Liga. No club under his tenure has conceded fewer goals per game on average (0.77), and his teams have kept clean sheets in nearly half of their league appearances (48%)—both unmatched records in the Spanish top division.

This season has been no different. The Rojiblancos lead the league in defensive metrics—conceding the fewest goals (15), sharing the highest number of clean sheets (11, tied with Real Sociedad), and allowing the lowest expected goals total against them (20.3 xG), according to Opta.

Key final-day fixtures

Athletic Bilbao vs Barcelona

Firmly positioned inside the top four, Bilbao currently maintain an eight-point cushion over the team in fifth. However, that margin could narrow to five if Villarreal—occupying the fifth spot—capitalises on their game in hand.

The most recent encounter between Bilbao and Barcelona was during the semifinals of the Spanish Supercopa. The Catalans delivered a dominant 2-0 display to eliminate the Basque outfit from the tournament.

Barcelona, currently enjoying remarkable form, are showing no signs of easing off. A single misstep could allow Madrid the opportunity to leapfrog them to the top of the table.

At the time of writing, the Blaugrana are enjoying a remarkable unbeaten streak across all competitions—18 matches without a loss, consisting of 15 wins and three draws. That stretch includes their convincing 2-0 result over Bilbao in January, played at the King Abdullah Sports City in Saudi Arabia.

Barcelona are aiming to amass enough league points to secure the title before journeying to the Basque Country, where they’ll clash with Bilbao at Estadio San Mamés. Meanwhile, the hosts will be determined to offer their supporters a memorable end to the campaign by claiming victory in their final fixture on home turf.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

It’s been a disappointing campaign for the San Sebastián-based club, who have seen their journey in every competition come to an end—most recently bowing out in the Europa League round-of-16 following a defeat to Manchester United.

Their struggles haven’t been limited to European fixtures either. Sociedad have managed just a single victory in their past six outings across all competitions while suffering three defeats in their last five La Liga appearances—falling to Sevilla, Real Betis, and Barcelona.

At the time of this report, Imanol Alguacil’s men are positioned in 12th place with 35 points. However, the gap to fifth-placed Villarreal remains within reach, standing at only nine points—a margin that could still be narrowed with a consistent run.

Nonetheless, recent displays suggest otherwise. Their erratic form casts doubt on any serious push toward the upper tier of the standings, particularly as they still face daunting fixtures—one of which includes a clash with Madrid on the season’s final day.

Conversely, Los Blancos will be looking to register their 101st victory in 181 meetings with the Txuri-Urdin when both sides meet at the Santiago Bernabéu in that last match.

Carlo Ancelotti, meanwhile, will aim to maintain his dominant record against Sociedad—having suffered defeat only twice in 12 encounters while securing nine wins and a single draw during that span. Fans will be battling to buy Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad tickets in the expectation that we could be in for a dramatic last day in the title race.

Girona vs Atletico Madrid

Following an exceptional 2023-24 campaign in which they secured a historic third-place La Liga finish and earned a Champions League berth, Girona have found this season far more challenging by comparison.

From 28 league games so far, the Blanquivermells have accumulated just 34 points, courtesy of nine victories, seven stalemates, and 12 losses—leaving them in 13th position, a mere seven-point buffer above the relegation zone.

Although Michel’s men are not in grave danger of slipping into the bottom three, their recent form paints a concerning picture. They’ve managed only one win from their last eight league fixtures, with that sole triumph coming against Las Palmas in early February.

Their recent outings have produced draws with Valencia, Espanyol, and Celta Vigo. However, the path ahead doesn’t get easier—they are set to return from the international break with a daunting clash against league leaders Barcelona.

Awaiting them at the end of the campaign is another massive test—Diego Simeone’s Atlético, who are currently in third and firmly involved in the title race.

Although Atlético’s 4-2 defeat to Barcelona widened the gap to four points, a run of consecutive victories could still bring them back into serious contention. This could potentially set up a decisive final-day showdown with Girona to determine their championship fate.

Unlike last season, Girona no longer poses the same threat level, and the Rojiblancos will aim to complete a double over them—having already secured a commanding 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season.