Champions League 2025/26: Who’s Leading the Betting?

With the Champions League final still fresh in memory, bookmakers are already pricing up next season’s favourites. Let’s take a look at the early favourites:

• Liverpool: +550 to +600 (≈ 11–12% implied chance)
• Real Madrid: +650 to +700 (≈ 10–12%)
• PSG: +700 to +750 (≈ 11–12%)
• Arsenal: +700 (≈ 11%)
• Man City: +800 to +900 (≈ 10%)
• Barcelona: +800 to +900
• Bayern Munich: +900 to +1000
• Chelsea: +1600 to +1800
• Newcastle United: +2000 to +2300
• Inter Milan: +2200 to +2500

Liverpool (+550 to +600): The Early Firm Favourite

Liverpool top the futures market, offered between +550 and +600 (implied 11–12%). Under Arne Slot, they coupled domestic dominance—claiming the 2024/25 Premier League—with a strong Champions League pedigree. Key factors include Salah’s contract extension and strategic summer additions like Jeremie Frimpong. Their blend of stability, experience, and momentum gives them the edge in the early market. Those punters wanting to back Liverpool can do so via the MelBet online betting app.

Real Madrid (+650 to +700): Europe’s Ever‑Present Force

Sitting at +650 to +700 (10–12%), Real Madrid are the bookmakers’ second choice. With a record 15 European titles and the arrival of Xabi Alonso as manager, expectations are high. Summer recruits like Trent Alexander‑Arnold enhance their firepower, underscoring why they remain perennial contenders.

PSG (+700 to +750): Can They Go Back‑to‑Back?

As reigning champions, PSG carry odds of +700 to +750 (≈11–12%) . Luis Enrique’s side stunned Europe with a dominant 2024/25 campaign, culminating in a 5-0 final win. Betting analysts highlight their Ligue 1 juggernaut status and Ligue opposition as potential assets . Still, few teams achieve back-to-back Champions League victories in the modern era, and PSG will face fresh tactical scrutiny.

Arsenal (+700): The English Hopefuls

Arsenal share +700 odds with PSG (≈11%) . After reaching the semi-finals in 2024/25, bookmakers view them as genuine contenders . Mikel Arteta has assembled a balanced squad capable of deep continental runs, but a maiden title remains a hurdle. Their growing European credentials make them an attractive long‑shot with upside.

Manchester City & Barcelona (+800 to +900): High‑Profile Threats

Both City and Barcelona sit at +800 to +900 (≈10%) .

• Manchester City, despite a dip and summer overhaul, remain dangerous under Pep Guardiola.
• Barcelona, rebuilding under Xavi, carry historical weight and have been tipped by fans to challenge.

Their pedigrees give bettors reason to take note, although both face questions of squad depth and consistency.

Bayern Munich (+900 to +1000): The German Giants

At +900 to +1000 (≈9–10%) , Bayern are seen as contenders, depending on domestic dominance and summer recruitment. Their consistency in reaching later stages gives them a baseline credibility.

Chelsea & Newcastle United (Longer Odds)

• Chelsea, trading around +1600 to +1800 (~5–6%), need transformative signings and managerial clarity to mount a serious challenge.
• Newcastle United, at +2000 to +2300 (~4–5%), have momentum after qualifying for the Champions League. However, they remain outsiders.

Inter Milan & Other Outsiders

• Inter Milano sits around +2200 to +2500 (~3–5%), still seeking their fourth European crown.
• Teams like Napoli and Atletico rank longer (approx. +2500).

Market Takeaways

The early futures market highlights a clear bracket of top contenders: Liverpool, Real Madrid, PSG, Arsenal, City, Barcelona, and Bayern comprise the elite. Odds imply each holds roughly a 9–12% chance of winning. The cluster at the top reflects tight expectations, while underdogs offer value for risk‑seeking bettors.

What to Watch This Summer

1. Summer transfers & managerial moves: Especially at City, Real, PSG, and Arsenal. New additions could shift the market.
2. Champions League draw & group-stage form: Odds will evolve based on early group-stage performance.
3. Depth & injuries: Teams like Chelsea and Newcastle may rise if they reinforce well; heavy involvement in domestic cups will test squads.

In summary, Liverpool lead the market, closely followed by Real Madrid, PSG, and Arsenal. Manchester City, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich round out a strong lead pack. While outsiders like Chelsea, Newcastle, and Inter remain long shots, Champions League betting will no doubt sharpen as summer developments unfold.

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into implied probabilities, a head-to-head comparison based on draw scenarios, or how player transfers might tilt the odds further.