Arsenal

Race For Top 4: The Remaining Fixtures & End of Season Prediction

As Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs gear up for that final push, we take a look at what their remaining fixtures are and make our prediction on how they will finish

by
O-Posts
March 21, 2012

Champions League - 2 places up for grabs

Guest post submitted by o-posts:

Separated by 4 points, three of London’s biggest clubs head into the run-in aspiring to play in Europe’s premier competition next season.

As Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs gear up for that final push, we take a look at what their remaining fixtures are from tonight until the end of the Barclays Premier League season, and we also make our prediction on how the trio will finish.

Arsenal:

Everton A
Villa H
QPR A
Man City H
Wolves A
Wigan H
Chelsea H
Stoke A
Norwich H
West Brom A

Half of the games are on the road, while the rest are of course at the Grove. The average current league position of Arsenal’s upcoming opponents is 12.8.

Away trips to Everton and Stoke might be the games that decide Arsenal’s fate, alongside the massive games against City and Chelsea in April. The run-in doesn’t look scary to be fair, but has sufficient potential for the odd blip. West Brom away on the final day isn’t ideal either.

The positive momentum derived from 4 consecutive comeback wins should help the Gunners in their quest.

Chelsea:

Man City A
Spurs H
Villa A
Wigan H
Fulham A
Newcastle H
Arsenal A
QPR H
Liverpool A
Blackburn H

The average current league position of Chelsea’s upcoming opponents is 10.1. Five games are away from home, while five are in west London at Stamford Bridge.

Easily the toughest run-in of the three, Chelsea would have a fair idea of their destiny by the weekend, after they face Manchester City and Spurs in a matter of 4 days, and anything less than 4 points from the two games might turn out to be irreparable in their fight for a top-four finish.

Add to that their European and FA Cup commitments, the Blues have an uphill task to break into the top 4. Having said that, Di Matteo’s men seem to have turned the corner with an odds-defying win over Napoli and then qualifying for the FA Cup semis after defeating Leicester City on Saturday.

Tottenham Hotspur:

Stoke H
Chelsea A
Swansea H
Sunderland A
Norwich H
Bolton A
QPR A
Blackburn H
Villa A
Fulham H

‘Arry Redknapp’s team appear to have the easiest run-in. Their opponents have an average current league position of 12.6, which is slightly less than Arsenal’s average. But with five away and five home games for the lily-whites, and facing 7 of the bottom 10 in the run-in, Spurs surely have the easiest looking fixture list, on paper at least.

Few would argue that away games at relegation-threatened clubs could be extremely uncomfortable during the closing weeks of the season. Add to that their untimely dip in form, and the momentum suddenly feels completely against Spurs. Despite this, Tottenham should get a minimum of 21 points from their remaining fixtures, which should be enough to see them secure a top-four place.

VERDICT:

It’s squeaky bum-time and it’s a matter of who blinks first. Momentum becomes a huge factor at this stage of the season, and that is where I think Arsenal have the edge. They are hitting form at the right time and have won their last five games, whereas Tottenham have lost their last three.

It comes down to fine margins and you wouldn’t bet against an RVP-led Arsenal to pip their rivals for third. Spurs have the easier fixtures though and that could be the deciding factor between them and Chelsea.

The final positions at the end of the season, in my opinion: