Five dark horses who could shock the world at the 2026 World Cup

Every World Cup produces its surprise package. In 2022, it was Morocco who became the first African nation to reach the semi-finals, defeating Spain and Portugal along the way. In 2002, it was South Korea and Turkey. In 1994, it was Bulgaria.

The 2026 edition, with its expanded 48-team format giving more teams a route into the knockout stages, may produce more surprises than any previous tournament. With FIFA World Cup match odds already generating significant market interest ahead of the June 11 start, here are five nations capable of exceeding all expectations this summer.

Portugal

Portugal occupy a curious position in this World Cup. They are too good to be a genuine dark horse yet not quite trusted enough by the market to be considered a leading contender, sitting around 9-1 in most outright lists.

The squad has enormous talent: Bruno Fernandes has been one of the best midfielders in the Premier League this season, Bernardo Silva remains one of Europe’s most complete players, Rafael Leao provides pace and directness in wide areas, and Vitinha has grown into one of the most assured midfield operators in European football.

Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41, is likely to play a supporting role, and the team functions better for it. Roberto Martinez has settled on a system that suits the personnel, and Portugal’s draw gives them a realistic path to the latter stages. If the squad fires collectively, they have the quality to reach the final.

Germany

Germany have been rebuilding since their humiliation at the 2018 and 2022 tournaments, and the 2026 edition may represent the moment that rebuilding bears fruit. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala give them a creative midfield partnership of genuine world-class quality, Joshua Kimmich provides the defensive cover and leadership the team requires, and Julian Nagelsmann has imposed a tactical clarity on the squad that had been conspicuously absent under previous regimes.

Germany are placed at around 11-1 in most markets, a price that arguably underestimates the progress they have made. A favourable draw in Group E alongside Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador should allow them to arrive at the knockout stages in form and with confidence.

Morocco

Calling Morocco a dark horse still does not quite capture where this team stands. They reached the semi-finals in 2022, defeating Spain and Portugal along the way, and the squad that achieved that has continued to mature.

Achraf Hakimi remains one of the most dangerous attacking full-backs in world football. Sofyan Amrabat provides the physical midfield presence that gives Morocco their defensive foundation. Hakim Ziyech, Brahim Diaz, and Youssef En-Nesyri supply the creative and goal-scoring threat.

Coach Mohamed Ouahbi has only been in charge since March, but Morocco no longer arrive at tournaments fearing the bigger nations. Placed in Group C alongside Brazil, Scotland, and Haiti, they are expected to qualify, and from there, anything is possible.

Japan

Japan’s 2022 World Cup campaign should have permanently retired their dark horse status. Defeating Germany and Spain to top the group of death before losing to Croatia on penalties in the round of 16 was a performance of genuine quality, not a fluke.

The 2026 squad is stronger still. Kaoru Mitoma provides game-changing quality in wide areas, Ayase Ueda has been one of Europe’s most prolific strikers this season, and Takefusa Kubo adds technical quality and directness across the front line. Under Hajime Moriyasu, Japan play with a club-like cohesion and pressing intensity that causes problems for sides far more celebrated than them. Those looking at free bet offers ahead of the tournament could do considerably worse than including Japan among their ante-post selections at a price that still underestimates what this squad is capable of.

Norway

Norway’s dark horse credentials rest largely on one name, but what a name it is. Erling Haaland is the most feared goalscorer in world football, and his presence alone transforms Norway from a nation that has rarely threatened at major tournaments into a genuine threat to anyone they face.

Martin Odegaard provides the creative foundation that a team built around Haaland requires, and the wider squad has improved considerably in recent years. Norway qualified for the World Cup and will be appearing at the tournament for the first time since 1998.

The lack of major tournament experience is the primary concern, and tournament football often demands qualities that domestic form cannot fully prepare a side for. But a team containing Haaland and Odegaard is never simply a romantic punt. They are a genuine threat, and the market’s current price reflects that underestimation rather than the reality of their squad.