Football Tips in the Euro 2016 Groups
In this article we’ll be looking to explore some potential avenues for profit in the betting markets during the 2016 European Championship.
You’re going to be seeing a lot of football tips for the Euro 2016 groups as the betting starts to ramp up the closer we get to the tournament. Some of those football tips will be triggered by market movements, some will be inspired by the form of the sides taking part. In this article we’ll be looking to explore some potential avenues for profit and try to pre-empt where some of that football advice may show up.
The sharp bettors may have got their money in early but this is normally the time that your more “casual” bettor will start to back their favourite side or place money on a bet that has caught their eye. As you may expect this can lead to markets being a bit skewed and some real value opening up for those with a canny eye.
When the markets opened up, France were immediately installed as favourites and that’s still the case. The odds have come in though and anyone who hesitated before backing the host nation will now be getting less return on their money if the French do manage to win this summer’s competition. When one market goes in, it balances out elsewhere. The bookies don’t want the book to become unbalanced, they want to tempt people into backing one of the other contenders because that way they finish the competition in profit, no matter what. It may not be the second favourite, Germany started at odds of 5 with Ladbrokes and they’re still at odds of 5, but somewhere in the market you’ll find that the odds have moved out a little, improving the risk/reward ratio a bit.
In this case it looks like that team may be Spain. The markets opened at around 4.5 and you can now get odds of 6 for the current European Champions to retain their title. They are the stand-out side in their group, came through qualifying with 9 wins in 10 games and look to be a decent outside bet at this point in time.
Even if, like me, you’re not expecting them to come through and win the tournament I think there is very little chance their odds won’t shorten as we get to the end of the group stage and this is a perfect trading opportunity.
In terms of football bets, trading is sometimes seen as the “uncouth” way of working but heading into a tournament like this it can be a great way of creating some free bets for yourself later down the line.
One thing you can almost always count on is the British betting public to force the odds on an England win down. The markets opened with England rated at 15 with Paddy Power to win their first major competition since 1966. Despite some less than impressive results those odds have steadily come in and you can only get odds of 9 with the same bookie now.
As a trader and occasional layer of bets, I’m happy to see those odds come in even further as I’ll be looking to lay England during the competition. It may be unpatriotic of me but I’m in this to make money and I shouldn’t let a football betting opportunity like this pass me by without having at least a small taste of it.
I’m sure I’ll get caught up in the emotion of things if England start to do well but I will also stick to the plan and get a lay bet in by at least the quarter finals (if England get that far).
Don’t let recent friendly results fool you. Germany will be a force this summer. They are a tournament side and often grow stronger as the competition progresses. The toughest team they have to face in their group is Poland and that will be a feisty match for various reasons (expect a heavy police presence on the streets the day of that game). If, as I expect, they top their group this is another side who will see their odds come in. There has been a little movement in the market already but not enough to cause anyone who’s waited until now too much concern.
Germany do not do well in friendlies and their squad doesn’t look as strong as the one they took to Brazil. The retirement of Philipp Lahm from international duties hasn’t really been effectively filled and they are still missing a deadly striker but that’s not unusual in this summer’s competition. Injuries to Reus and Gundogan have also hurt the squad but this is still a very talented German side and one that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Indeed, Germany are my tip to win the entire thing.
Toughest & Easiest Groups
There are some groups in this competition that stand out as being particularly difficult to predict. Group E, with Belgium, Italy, the Republic of Ireland and Sweden in, is one of those. I don’t hold out a lot of hope for the Republic of Ireland but almost any of the other 3 sides could end up topping that group.
Group B isn’t easy either. England are perhaps being over-rated, Wales have the brilliance of Gareth Bale, Russia are unbeaten since their new coach came in and Slovakia can be dangerous.
France are heavy favourites to win Group A, no surprise there, but second place is still a decent position in that group as they will be facing the runner up in Group F, talking of which…
A lot of people will be tipping Portugal to top Group F and at 1.91 with BetVictor that’s a fairly safe bet. What order the other 3 sides in that group will finish is the more difficult question.
There is an awful lot of football betting to come for Euro 2016 and anyone who gets their football tips right could do very well in this competition. Best of luck to you if you’re going to be taking that risk this summer.
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