Premier League top four race: 6 key games to secure Champions League qualification

The 2024-25 Premier League table has been an exciting one so far. From Nottingham Forest’s unexpected but inspiring top-four-chasing performances to the defending champions Manchester City battling their way back into the top-four despite slipping out occasionally.

Arsenal are enjoying a fairytale season, currently on a 15-game unbeaten run. Their thrilling 5-1 win over City will be part of the club’s folklore for years, with Erling Haaland telling Arteta, “Stay humble, eh,” in the first leg—only for an Arsenal fan to hold a placard with the same words in response.

Just 94 miles (151 km) southwest of the North London side, fellow Basque-born manager and Arteta’s former teammate, Andoni Iraola, is working wonders at Bournemouth, guiding them to fifth place—just one point behind fourth-placed City.

This season’s top-four chase has been intriguing, and while Liverpool have been unstoppable at the top of the table, their resolve will be tested in the coming fixtures.

In this article, we highlight six of the key games that could shape the top four race.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool—Wednesday, 19th February 

With Premier League action their sole focus until the month’s end, Aston Villa—who have often struggled in the league immediately after European outings—will be eager to bounce back and reclaim a European spot. However, they face one of their toughest challenges yet in table-toppers Liverpool.

A four-game winless run in the league, including a frustrating 1-1 draw against 19th-placed Ipswich Town, has seen Villa drop to ninth place, now six points adrift of fourth-placed Manchester City. However, a run of four consecutive home games offers them the chance to extend their 11-match unbeaten streak at Villa Park.

Yet, standing in their way is Mohamed Salah, who has been a nightmare for away teams this season. The Egyptian forward already boasts 13 away goals, and he could add to that tally when Liverpool visit Birmingham on Wednesday night.

The Reds were made to work hard in their last outing but still secured a crucial 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield. Under Arne Slot, the Reds have now amassed 60 points in 25 Premier League matches (W18 D6 L1)—a tally only bettered in league history by José Mourinho (64), with Antonio Conte also reaching 60 in the same span.

 Man City vs Liverpool—Sunday, 23rd February

Manchester City will be determined to avoid consecutive defeats to Liverpool when they welcome the league leaders to the Etihad Stadium on 23rd February.

Arne Slot has wasted no time in imprinting his philosophy at Liverpool, breaking the Guardiola-Klopp era of dominance in English football. His debut season has been impressive, making him the seventh Liverpool manager to avoid defeat in his first game against a reigning Premier League champion since Roy Evans lost 1-0 to Manchester United in 1993-94.

The Reds laid down a marker in their title bid with a 2-0 victory over City at Anfield in the first leg, putting them in pole position for their first league crown in five years.

For Guardiola, Liverpool—alongside Tottenham—has been his biggest nemesis, with nine defeats against each, more than any other opponent in his managerial career. His six wins in 22 meetings against Liverpool also represent his lowest win rate against any team he has faced more than five times across all competitions.

City’s recent struggles have sparked concerns once again. Their 5-1 thrashing by Arsenal—their heaviest away league defeat since January 2017—was followed by a 3-2 collapse against Real Madrid in the Champions League after taking the lead.

Defensive frailties have also crept in, with 57 goals conceded in 38 matches across all competitions this season, already exceeding last season’s tally of 54 in 59 games. Under Guardiola, they have only fared worse in 2016-17 (60 goals conceded)—a worrying sign ahead of facing the league’s highest scorers, Liverpool.

However, they responded in style in their last league outing, as Omar Marmoush netted a 14-minute hat-trick in a 4-0 demolition of Newcastle at the Etihad, strengthening their grip on a Champions League spot.

Liverpool vs Newcastle United—Wednesday, 26th February 

Liverpool will aim to edge one step closer to the Premier League title when they host top-four hopefuls Newcastle United at Anfield on 26th February.

The Merseyside giants have been among Europe’s most dominant teams this season, suffering just three defeats across all competitions. In the Premier League, their only loss remains the 1-0 setback against Nottingham Forest at Anfield.

They have outperformed their rivals in nearly every key metric, recording the most wins (18), the second-fewest draws (6)—behind Nottingham Forest—the highest goal tally (60), and the second-fewest goals conceded (24), only behind Arsenal.

For Newcastle, their ambitions of securing a top-four finish have taken a hit despite an impressive start to the year. A run of three defeats in their last four league matches has seen them slip to seventh in the standings, losing crucial ground in the race for Champions League qualification.

Their recent record against Liverpool makes grim reading, with the Magpies winless in their last 16 encounters against the Reds. Their last victory came in December 2015, when a Martin Škrtel own goal and a late Georginio Wijnaldum strike sealed a 2-0 triumph at St. James’ Park.

Eddie Howe will be desperate to end that barren run, but securing three points at Anfield—where Liverpool remain unbeaten this season—will be a daunting challenge for the 47-year-old tactician.

 Tottenham Hotspur vs Man City—Wednesday, 26th February

Tottenham Hotspur will be aiming for consecutive victories over Manchester City when the defending champions visit the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on February 26th.

Things have not gone as planned for Spurs this season. Eliminated from the FA Cup and Carabao Cup, out of the Premier League top four, and with their only silverware hope resting on the Europa League, the North London side finds itself at a crossroads.

Ange Postecoglou faces an uphill battle in securing European football next season, with their current form making a deep Europa League run seem unrealistic.

On a brighter note, they will be confident heading into this fixture, given that City have become one of their favourite opponents in recent years.

Pep Guardiola has already endured two defeats against Spurs this season, including a humiliating 4-0 loss, his heaviest since April 2014, when he suffered the same margin of defeat against Real Madrid.

The City boss will be desperate to avoid another setback, as a loss would mean he has now suffered ten defeats against Spurs—the most against any single team in his managerial career.

Despite the embarrassing 5-1 defeat to Arsenal, the Premier League holders are in better form than Tottenham, giving them hope of bouncing back in this crucial encounter.

Man United vs Arsenal—Sunday, 9th March

Man United’s current Premier League campaign is shaping up to be one of their worst ever, following an eighth-place finish last season under Erik ten Hag.

The Red Devils fell to their 12th league defeat of the season against Tottenham Hotspur, having only lost more in a single Premier League campaign (14 in 2023-24).

That loss also meant United have now suffered 12 defeats in 25 league matches (W8 D5), marking their worst start to a league campaign since 1973-74—the season they were relegated from the top flight.

They now face a stern test against Arsenal, whom they eliminated from the FA Cup in January. Despite an injury-hit squad, Rúben Amorim will hope his team delivers another spirited display, similar to their performance at the Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners are enjoying their best unbeaten Premier League run in 14 years, a worrying sign for their hosts at the King Power Stadium.

Arsenal have not lost in 15 league games—their longest run without defeat since Arsène Wenger’s side went 16 games unbeaten between December 2010 and April 2011.

Injury woes have forced Mikel Arteta to rely heavily on younger players, handing 10 starts and 835 minutes to players 18 or younger. Myles Lewis-Skelly has started seven times, equalling Gaël Clichy’s record for most Premier League starts by a Gunners defender before turning 19.

On a positive note for Arsenal, they will look to draw confidence from their strong recent record against United.

The 2-0 victory in North London—secured through set-piece goals from Jurrien Timber and William Saliba—ensured Arsenal won four consecutive league games against United for the first time in their history.

In their last visit to Old Trafford in May 2024, the 1-0 win against the Red Devils marked their 27th Premier League win of the season, with Arsenal only securing more league victories in 1970-71 (29) and 1930-31 (28).

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea—Sunday, 25th May

Six days after their FA Cup elimination by Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea suffered an even more disappointing defeat, falling 3-0 to the Seagulls last Friday. That result saw the Blues drop to sixth place in the Premier League table, much to the disappointment of fans with Chelsea tickets.

They are currently enduring their longest winless streak away from home in the Premier League (D2, L2), having gone four games without victory since their 4-3 win over Tottenham in early December. While Chelsea averaged 2.9 goals per game in their first eight away league matches, that number has dropped to just 0.5 per game in this winless run.

Now in a real fight for a Champions League spot, they have won just three of their last 11 matches in all competitions at the time of writing and will need to urgently get back to winning ways, as any more dropped points could see them drop further down the table.

With key clashes against Arsenal, Newcastle, and league leaders Liverpool ahead, the Blues must pick up as many points as possible before their final Premier League fixture of the season away to Nottingham Forest. With both clubs battling for a top four place, Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea tickets will be in high demand for this fixture.

Nuno Espírito Santo has transformed Forest from relegation battlers last season into a Champions League-chasing side.

The Tricky Trees sit third in the Premier League table with 47 points, trailing second-place Arsenal by six while holding a three-point lead over fourth-place Manchester City.

They are also four points ahead of Chelsea and will aim to sustain their momentum as the season nears its climax.

With City rediscovering form and Bournemouth showing resilience despite their loss to Liverpool, the race for the top four could go down to the wire—making the City Ground showdown with Chelsea a potential table-defining fixture.

Forest will look to replicate their first-leg performance, where they held Chelsea to a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge despite being a man down.