Spreadex Predicts 2025/26 Premier League Points: Three-Way Title Battle but Promoted Sides Struggle

The dust has only just settled after the 2024/25 campaign but thoughts are already turning to next season. While fans may be distracted by the latest transfer rumours, the 2025/26 Premier League fixtures have been unveiled leading to speculation over who will emerge triumphant and who will face the drop.

Spreadex Sports has released its annual Premier League Points Spread Predictions, offering insight into how the campaign might unfold.

Liverpool to Edge Three-Way Title Fight

According to Spreadex’s forecast, Liverpool are in pole position to secure back-to-back Premier League titles. The Reds, now under Arne Slot, are narrowly tipped to outperform Arsenal and Manchester City in what is expected to be a fiercely contested three-way title race. Liverpool’s odds have likely improved following the signing of Florian Wirtz, which has given them a marginal advantage in Spreadex’s model.

Manchester United to Recover Ground—But Fall Short of Top Four

Following a historically poor 2024/25 campaign in which they amassed just 42 points, Manchester United are projected to rebound under Ruben Amorim, finishing sixth with a predicted total between 57 and 59 points. While an improvement, it would still leave them outside Champions League qualification.

Promoted Trio Facing Immediate Relegation

For the third consecutive season, Spreadex expects all three promoted clubs—Leeds United, Burnley, and Sunderland—to be relegated. Leeds are forecast to fare best among the trio, with a projected points range of 35.5 to 37.5. Burnley (28–30 points) and Sunderland (24.5–26.5) are likely to struggle to bridge the gulf between the Championship and the top flight. This worrying trend raises fresh questions about the widening financial and quality chasm between the two divisions.

Josh Osgood of Spreadex Weighs In

“Last season fell flat from a betting perspective,” said Spreadex’s Josh Osgood. “The title and relegation battles were all but settled well before the final whistle of the season. This year promises more drama at the top, though our numbers suggest another bleak outlook for the promoted sides.”

Osgood continued, “The days of dramatic final-day relegation deciders may be behind us. Premier League mainstays continue to grow stronger financially, while newly promoted clubs often lack the resources to truly compete.”

A Live Market and Transfer Influences

Spreadex’s Premier League predictions are part of a live spread betting market, meaning the projected points totals can fluctuate as teams strengthen—or weaken—during the summer transfer window. Clubs making savvy moves may well see their forecasts improve.

Please note: Spread betting involves significant risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial deposit. Always gamble responsibly.

Spreadex’s 2025/26 Premier League Points Forecasts: Team-by-Team

• Arsenal (77–79 points)
  A disappointing 2024/25 left the Gunners trailing expectations. Injuries and disciplinary issues hurt their campaign as they finished second for the third consecutive season. Mikel Arteta will be determine to go one better next year but Spreadex forecast Arsenal to just miss out to Liverpool.
• Aston Villa (56.5–58.5)
  After a memorable Champions League run, Villa will now have to adjust to life in the Europa League. Spreadex anticipates a slight dip in league performance from the Villans as they battle with Thursday night football.
• Bournemouth (49–51)
  A strong season under Iraola saw Bournemouth flourish, but key departures such as Dean Huijsen and Milos Kerkez may see them regress.
• Brentford (42.5–44.5)
  Brentford impressed last year but the exit of Thomas Frank and potential loss of Mbeumo present a significant challenge.
• Brighton (53–55)
  Fabian Hürzeler enters his second season at the helm. While questions remain, the club’s mix of youth and experience positions them well for a European push.
• Burnley (28–30)
  Dominant in the Championship defensively, Burnley’s resilience will be tested against Premier League opposition.
• Chelsea (65.5–67.5)
  Enzo Maresca’s young side made the top four and will be looking to maintain their upward trajectory. A title challenge may still be beyond them next season but the Blues are tipped for a top four finish once again.
• Crystal Palace (45.5–47.5)
  FA Cup winners Palace face ownership uncertainty that may affect their Europa League participation. Mid-table consolidation appears likely, especially if they lose Eze.
• Everton (46–48)
  With David Moyes guiding them into a new era at a new stadium, mid-table security is forecast for the Toffees.
• Fulham (45.5–47.5)
  Now firmly established in the top flight, Fulham are expected to continue their stable mid-table form.
• Leeds United (35.5–37.5)
  Promoted as Championship winners, Leeds must invest wisely if they’re to avoid a swift return to the second tier.
• Liverpool (77.5–79.5)
  Arne Slot’s men defied expectations after Klopp’s departure. With new signings already on board, the Reds are even stronger and are slight title favourites. Spreadex tip Liverpool to edge the title race.
• Manchester City (77–79)
  Guardiola’s injury-ravaged squad is poised for a stronger challenge this season, buoyed by new additions such as Rayan Cherki. Forecast to finish level with Arsenal, City may just miss out on the title to Liverpool.
• Manchester United (57–59)
  Amorim has work to do following a dismal campaign. With several players potentially leaving, United need a squad overhaul to meet expectations. They can’t finish any worse than last season, so United are tipped to improve but still fall short of Champions League qualification.
• Newcastle United (65–67)
  Trophy winners and Champions League qualifiers once more, Newcastle are tipped for another strong season—provided they keep stars like Isak and Gordon.
• Nottingham Forest (47–49)
  A late-season dip cost them a higher finish. European football is a welcome reward but could stretch the squad.
• Sunderland (24.5–26.5)
  After ending their Premier League exile, Sunderland face a daunting task to avoid relegation. Their forecast suggests a tough year ahead.
• Tottenham Hotspur (55–57)
  Despite a disastrous league campaign, Spurs won the Europa League. With new boss Thomas Frank at the helm, a return to the top six is plausible.
• West Ham United (45–47)
  A turbulent year saw managerial upheaval. With several exits and fresh arrivals expected, the Hammers are forecast to tread water in mid-table.
• Wolverhampton Wanderers (40.5–42.5)
  After surviving a rocky start, Wolves found form under Vítor Pereira. A similar points tally to recent seasons is anticipated.