Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid preview, H2H, team news, line-ups and prediction

Atletico Madrid will look to overturn their first-leg loss to Real Madrid when Los Blancos visit the Riyadh Air Metropolitano for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16.

The 15-time UEFA Champions League champions have had a dominant record against Atlético in European competitions, winning all five previous knockout-stage encounters, including two finals. After their first-leg meeting last week, Wednesday’s clash will be the 11th Champions League match between the two sides, with only Chelsea vs Liverpool having seen as many meetings between teams from the same country.

Madrid have an impressive record in all-Spanish knockout ties, advancing in 10 of their 12 encounters. Their only defeats in such matchups came against Barcelona (1960-61 last 16, 2010-11 semi-finals).

Their recent knockout-stage form is exceptional as well. They have lost only once in their last 17 knockout matches (W12 D5) and have gone unbeaten in their last nine (W5 D4) since their only defeat in this stretch—a 4-0 loss to Manchester City in the 2022-23 semi-finals.

In the first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid triumphed in a thrilling derby against their city rivals, taking a one-goal advantage into the second leg at the Metropolitano Stadium.

Rodrigo ignited the tie four minutes into the match, opening the scoring in the derby with a stunning strike. After cutting inside from the right wing and manoeuvring his way into the box, he unleashed an unstoppable shot into the top corner past Atlético Madrid captain Jan Oblak.

This goal was significant for its brilliance. It marked Madrid’s 500th match in European Cup/Champions League history (including qualifiers), making them the first club to reach this milestone.

While Rodrigo’s opener was spectacular, Julián Alvarez’s equaliser in the 32nd minute was arguably even better. The Argentine forward curled a magnificent shot from just inside the box, hitting the post on its way in to score his seventh Champions League goal of the season. Only Diego Costa (8 in 2013-14) has scored more for Atlético in a single Champions League campaign.

Madrid regained the lead in the 55th minute when Brahim Díaz navigated through a sea of Atlético defenders before firing past Oblak. Real Madrid fans will be confident of finishing the job and some will already be looking at prices of Champions League final tickets as they’ll fancy their chances of going all the way again.

This marks the sixth season in a row both teams have met in the knockout stages of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (including finals), and Madrid have won all five of the previous encounters. With their first-leg victory, they now stand a strong chance of making it six out of six.

In the domestic league, Atlético handed three points to a team fighting relegation, a result that came as a shock after they were leading 1-0 with just two minutes remaining in the game.

Former Crystal Palace striker Alexander Sorloth had given Atlético the lead with a penalty in the 75th minute, but a late brace from Uruguayan midfielder Mauro Arambarri threatened to derail Atlético’s season.

Meanwhile, in the tight La Liga title race, Real Madrid moved ahead of their city rivals into second place, securing a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior scored in the first half to secure an easy 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano on Sunday, helping Madrid draw level at the top of the table in their pursuit of the La Liga title.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match details

• Date: Wednesday, 12th March, 2025
• Location: Madrid, Spain
• Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano
• Kick-off time: 8:00pm GMT
• Referee: Szymon Marciniak
• Assistant referees: Tomasz Listkiewicz, Adam Kupsik
• VAR: Tomasz Kwiatkowski
• Assistant VAR: Bastian Dankert
• Fourth official: Paweł Raczkowski
• Tickets: You can buy Champions League tickets from the clubs or through a trusted online reseller

Match stats and head-to-head

• Real Madrid have lost only once in their last 17 Champions League knockout-stage matches (W11 D5).

• Atlético Madrid have lost their last three away knockout-stage matches in the Champions League.

• Julián Alvarez has scored seven goals in eight Champions League appearances this season. Only two players have ever scored more in their debut Champions League season for Atlético Madrid—Diego Costa (8) in 2013-14 and Vava (8) in 1958-59.

•Álvarez’s stunning strike at the Bernabéu was also his seventh goal in nine Champions League matches this season, making him only the third Atlético player to score in consecutive derbies at the Bernabéu in the 21st century. He joined Diego Forlán and his strike partner Antoine Griezmann in achieving this feat.

• Los Blancos enjoyed a dominant run at Atlético’s previous stadium, the Calderón, winning eight consecutive away games between 2008 and 2014. Since Atlético moved to the Metropolitano, however, Real have won just three of 17 encounters, experiencing limited success at their rivals’ new home.

• Madrid have conceded 51 goals in 46 games across all competitions this season. Only Real Valladolid (68) and Girona (52) among La Liga teams have conceded more goals.

• Kylian Mbappé has been involved in 27 goals in 32 knockout-stage appearances (24 goals, three assists) and scored a hat-trick against Manchester City in his most recent appearance in the play-off round. This was his second knockout-stage hat-trick — only Cristiano Ronaldo (4) has more.

• Vinícius Júnior has contributed to nine goals in eight appearances in this season’s competition (7 goals, 2 assists) and is aiming for 10+ goal involvements for the fourth consecutive season. Ronaldo is the only other player to have achieved this feat for Real Madrid in as many as four seasons (8).

Team news

The upcoming week will be crucial for Atletico, but the Rojiblancos may have to scale without several key players.

With a packed schedule of important fixtures ahead, Diego Simeone has done well in managing his squad, rotating players to ensure most of his team remains fit throughout the season.

However, experienced defender César Azpilicueta may miss the upcoming clash due to a leg injury, and the game against Madrid might come too soon for the former Chelsea captain to regain full match fitness.

Long-term captain Koke is also unavailable. He has been sidelined with a thigh injury. The 33-year-old will be out for some time and will miss this clash.

In their recent loss to Getafe, former Tottenham loanee Clément Lenglet was forced to withdraw from the match before kick-off due to injury. Additionally, key player Rodrigo De Paul, a World Cup winner with Argentina, had to be substituted at half-time after appearing to be in trouble.

Ángel Correa is suspended for Atletico’s next run of Laliga games, having seen his yellow card upgraded to a red after a reckless high kick on Djene Dakonam just before the equaliser. However, he could face further sanctions extending to the Champions League following his utterances to the referee during the clash against Getafe. Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez said, “After showing him the red card, the player addressed me in the following terms: ‘Son of a b****, coward. Your mother’s ****,’” as reported by AS.

Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti opted to rest several key players, including goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and defender Antonio Rudiger, ahead of Wednesday’s second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie against rivals Atlético Madrid.

Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, and Vinícius Júnior were reported to have all sustained minor injuries during the 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano.

Ancelotti had substituted Bellingham and Rodrygo during the second half, while Vinícius Júnior played the entire match, which led to the assumption that there were no concerns with him.

However, a tweet from The Athletic’s Real Madrid correspondent Guillermo Rai revealed the details of the injuries. According to the journalist, the club reported that Vinícius Júnior had a toe injury, Bellingham suffered a minor blow to his right thigh, and Rodrygo experienced a blow to the metatarsal of his left foot.

The journalist added that Ancelotti does not consider these injuries serious; he still expects all three players to be available for the match against Atlético Madrid.

Meanwhile, Eder Militão, Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos, and Jesús Vallejo remain injured and continue to be Los Blancos’ longest-term absentees.

Predicted starting lineup

Atletico Madrid predicted starting lineup:

Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann

Real Madrid predicted starting lineup:

Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Jr.; Mbappe

Prediction

This Champions League fixture has traditionally favoured Madrid, with victories in the 2014 and 2016 finals and the 2017 semi-finals. However, Atlético Madrid should remain hopeful, as they have lost only once in their last seven home games against their bitter rivals.

In cup competitions, Atlético remain unbeaten in their last five encounters with them, winning four of those matchups. They must secure another victory on Wednesday if they are to have any chance of progressing after the previous week’s defeat.

However, Madrid are also known for their ability to finish the job when leading after the first leg, having failed to advance only once in 22 previous ties when they have won the opening match—that lone exception being against Ajax in 2019. Under Ancelotti, they have a perfect record, winning all nine of those ties, and they’ll look to extend it when they face their city rivals on Wednesday night.

We’re predicting a 2-1 win for Madrid.